Summary
« David Lisnard's program (Nouvelle Énergie) articulates three breaks: a tightening of the central State through a constitutional balanced-budget rule and a target to bring public spending below 50% of GDP within ten years; a radical decentralization that replaces départements and régions with 40 to 50 Provinces; and a hardened regalian agenda (ten-year police-justice plan, an 8-fold reduction in residence permits, constitutional primacy of national law over the CJEU and ECHR on migration). The pension reform raises the legal retirement age to 65 and shifts roughly 40% of the system to mandatory capitalization (€116 billion target). The school system introduces an education voucher, school autonomy and the end of the carte scolaire; healthcare abolishes the ARS and doubles the medical-student numerus clausus by 2030. Ecology is technophile and pro-nuclear (60-year reactor life-extension, next-generation EPR, SMR), explicitly rejects the precautionary principle and degrowth, with no quantified emissions target. The fiscal block removes the C3S and CVAE (€11.5 billion), merges CDI and CDD into a single contract and repeals Article 55 of the SRU Act. The five models converge on a classical right-wing positioning, with no shift to the far right. »
Consensus 78% — 5 model(s)
Strengths
- Production taxes and industrial competitiveness
- Migration flows and weak enforcement of returns
- Public spending and structural deficit
Weaknesses
- Diplomatic relations with Algeria and cooperation with countries of departure
- France's standing with the Council of Europe
- Access to social housing in tight zones
Notable gaps
- Decarbonization of transport (road, aviation, maritime) and of buildings
- Diplomatic and trade consequences of an ECHR exit
- Financing the pension transition (double-payment during the capitalization shift)
Political positioning
Economic⚡ Disagreement ±1
Mélenchon (LFI 2022)Hollande (2012)Macron (2017)Fillon (2017)Modal: 4claude-opus-4-7 — position 3
Concrete measures include halving production taxes (€11.5bn), moving 40% of pensions to capitalization, unified labor contract, removing SRU Article 55, and reducing public spending by 8 GDP points over 10 years. This is a sustained market-oriented package comparable to Fillon's 2017 platform.deepseek-v3 — position 3
Explicit measures to reduce public spending (<50% of GDP), cut production taxes, deregulate the labor market and shift pensions to capitalization, indicating a coherent pro-market orientation without extreme-liberalization markers.
Concrete measures include halving production taxes (€11.5bn), moving 40% of pensions to capitalization, unified labor contract, removing SRU Article 55, and reducing public spending by 8 GDP points over 10 years. This is a sustained market-oriented package comparable to Fillon's 2017 platform.deepseek-v3 — position 3
Explicit measures to reduce public spending (<50% of GDP), cut production taxes, deregulate the labor market and shift pensions to capitalization, indicating a coherent pro-market orientation without extreme-liberalization markers.
Interventionist (−5)Market (+5)
Social / Cultural⚡ Disagreement ±1
EELV (2022)Macron (2017)LR (2022)Zemmour (2022)Modal: 3claude-opus-4-7 — position 2
Program combines restoration of classical-humanities curriculum, authority-centered school model, assimilation frame and explicit opposition to political Islam. Family policy is natalist. Absent are conservative positions on LGBTQ rights, abortion, or civil-society moral questions, which keeps the score below +3.
Program combines restoration of classical-humanities curriculum, authority-centered school model, assimilation frame and explicit opposition to political Islam. Family policy is natalist. Absent are conservative positions on LGBTQ rights, abortion, or civil-society moral questions, which keeps the score below +3.
Progressive (−5)Conservative (+5)
Sovereignty⚡ Disagreement ±2
Glucksmann / Place publiqueMacron (2017)LR (2022)RN (2022)Modal: 3claude-opus-4-7 — position 1
Program is neither federalist nor exit-oriented. 'Treaty of democratization' to rebalance toward Council and Parliament, keeps cooperation on strategic sectors; explicit constitutional primacy on migration with ECHR exit only as last resort. Net score mildly sovereigntist.qwen3.6 — position 2
The program rejects both federalism and withdrawal, advocating a Europe of projects while asserting strict legal and migration sovereignty, with the threat of ECHR exit as a last resort.
Program is neither federalist nor exit-oriented. 'Treaty of democratization' to rebalance toward Council and Parliament, keeps cooperation on strategic sectors; explicit constitutional primacy on migration with ECHR exit only as last resort. Net score mildly sovereigntist.qwen3.6 — position 2
The program rejects both federalism and withdrawal, advocating a Europe of projects while asserting strict legal and migration sovereignty, with the threat of ECHR exit as a last resort.
Pro-European (−5)Sovereigntist (+5)
Institutional⚡ Disagreement ±2
Fifth Republic consensus pre-2017Macron (2017)LFI (referendum-heavy)RN (judicial / media reform)claude-opus-4-7 — position 0
Program reinforces Parliament's legislative initiative and oversight, decentralizes regulatory power, and recenters the presidency — all liberal-democratic markers. Counterbalanced by referendum-first framing on migration sovereignty and constitutional revision to override supranational courts. Net near zero.deepseek-v3 — position -1
Rebalancing of powers toward Parliament, radical decentralization and a narrowing of the law's scope: a liberal-democratic institutional reform with no identified illiberal drift.gemini-3-pro — position 1
Massive decentralization to Provinces diffuses power (liberal), but the willingness to override international courts via referendum adds a populist/plebiscitarian element.grok-4 — position 1
Radical decentralization, refocusing of the law on principles, strengthened parliamentary oversight; a constitutional referendum on territorial architecture and migration adds a plebiscitary dimension.qwen3.6 — position -1
Overhaul aimed at limiting the central executive, strengthening Parliament and devolving regulatory power to the Provinces, within a liberal-democratic and subsidiarity-based framework.
Program reinforces Parliament's legislative initiative and oversight, decentralizes regulatory power, and recenters the presidency — all liberal-democratic markers. Counterbalanced by referendum-first framing on migration sovereignty and constitutional revision to override supranational courts. Net near zero.deepseek-v3 — position -1
Rebalancing of powers toward Parliament, radical decentralization and a narrowing of the law's scope: a liberal-democratic institutional reform with no identified illiberal drift.gemini-3-pro — position 1
Massive decentralization to Provinces diffuses power (liberal), but the willingness to override international courts via referendum adds a populist/plebiscitarian element.grok-4 — position 1
Radical decentralization, refocusing of the law on principles, strengthened parliamentary oversight; a constitutional referendum on territorial architecture and migration adds a plebiscitary dimension.qwen3.6 — position -1
Overhaul aimed at limiting the central executive, strengthening Parliament and devolving regulatory power to the Provinces, within a liberal-democratic and subsidiarity-based framework.
Liberal-democratic (−5)Illiberal (+5)
Ecological⚡ Disagreement ±2
RN (2022, climate)LR (2022)Macron (2017)EELV (2022)Modal: -2claude-opus-4-7 — position 0
Program commits to decarbonization via nuclear expansion and carbon pricing, which places it above pure productivism. However, explicit rejection of precautionary principle, rejection of planetary boundaries concepts, pro-NTG and renewables scaled back pull it down from Macron-2017 baseline. Net near zero.deepseek-v3 — position -1
Explicit rejection of degrowth, nuclear as priority, challenge to renewables subsidies, but technological investments in low-carbon. Productivist approach with a techno-optimist component.
Program commits to decarbonization via nuclear expansion and carbon pricing, which places it above pure productivism. However, explicit rejection of precautionary principle, rejection of planetary boundaries concepts, pro-NTG and renewables scaled back pull it down from Macron-2017 baseline. Net near zero.deepseek-v3 — position -1
Explicit rejection of degrowth, nuclear as priority, challenge to renewables subsidies, but technological investments in low-carbon. Productivist approach with a techno-optimist component.
Productivist (−5)Transition-prioritized (+5)
Analysis by domain
Intergenerational impact
Estimated net effect of the programme on each domain, across three budgetary horizons. Scores are ordinal (−3 to +3) and measure the direction of impact, not its desirability. Cohort labels are approximate narrative anchors that imperfectly cover the calendar horizons.
| Dimension | 2027–2030 Workers aged 35–55 | 2031–2037 Young workers & retirees | 2038–2047 Generation Z & Alpha | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pensions | −1 Raising the retirement age to 65 reduces pension access for early-departure cohorts; capitalization not yet accumulated. intervalle : −1 → 0 claude-opus-4-7−1 deepseek-v3−1 gemini-3-pro−1 grok-40 qwen3.60 | +1 First capitalization tranches mature; minimum vieillesse active; solvency improving. intervalle : 0 → +1 claude-opus-4-7+1 deepseek-v30 gemini-3-pro+1 grok-4+1 qwen3.6+1 | +2 Capitalization approaches the ~40% target; reliance on the demographic ratio recedes. intervalle : +1 → +2 claude-opus-4-7+2 deepseek-v3+1 gemini-3-pro+2 grok-4+2 qwen3.6+2 | Age-65 threshold acts immediately; capitalization accumulation compounds across all horizons; old-age minimum stabilizes the low end. Pensions Age-65 threshold acts immediately; capitalization accumulation compounds across all horizons; old-age minimum stabilizes the low end. |
| Public debt | −1 Tax cuts (€11.5bn/year) and capitalization-transition costs precede spending savings; debt trajectory worsens in the short term. intervalle : −1 → +1 claude-opus-4-7−1 deepseek-v30 gemini-3-pro+1 grok-4−1 qwen3.6−1 | +1 Golden rule fully effective and mid-trajectory of spending cuts; net effect depends on target compliance. Grok view more degraded (costly transition). intervalle : −2 → +2 claude-opus-4-70 deepseek-v3+1 gemini-3-pro+2 grok-4−2 qwen3.6+1 | +2 Eight-GDP-point spending-reduction target reached on Sweden/Germany trajectory; debt declining. Grok dissents on the scale of residual costs. intervalle : −1 → +2 claude-opus-4-7+1 deepseek-v3+2 gemini-3-pro+2 grok-4−1 qwen3.6+2 | Spending-cut target + production-tax cuts interact with the double-financing of the capitalization transition and with the constitutional golden rule. Public debt Spending-cut target + production-tax cuts interact with the double-financing of the capitalization transition and with the constitutional golden rule. |
| Climate | 0 Renewables derogation regime ends before new EPRs come online; near-term emissions-gap risk depending on the duration of the bridge. intervalle : −1 → +1 claude-opus-4-7−1 deepseek-v30 gemini-3-pro0 grok-4+1 qwen3.60 | +1 First EPRs and SMRs enter commissioning; revenue-neutral carbon pricing in place. intervalle : 0 → +2 claude-opus-4-70 deepseek-v3+1 gemini-3-pro+1 grok-4+2 qwen3.6+1 | +2 New nuclear fleet fully integrated; decarbonized electricity supports industrial electrification. intervalle : +1 → +2 claude-opus-4-7+1 deepseek-v3+2 gemini-3-pro+2 grok-4+2 qwen3.6+1 | New nuclear capacity arrives with delay; renewables-derogation exit acts immediately; revenue-neutral carbon pricing. Climate New nuclear capacity arrives with delay; renewables-derogation exit acts immediately; revenue-neutral carbon pricing. |
| Health | 0 ARS dissolution during the transition may disrupt coordination; new students not yet graduated. intervalle : −1 → 0 claude-opus-4-7−1 deepseek-v30 gemini-3-pro0 grok-40 qwen3.60 | +1 First doubled cohorts of doctors enter practice; differentiated conventionnement reshapes territorial access. score : +1 claude-opus-4-7+1 deepseek-v3+1 gemini-3-pro+1 grok-4+1 qwen3.6+1 | +1 Medical-desert metrics improve; European pharmaceutical consortium stabilizes supply. intervalle : +1 → +2 claude-opus-4-7+1 deepseek-v3+2 gemini-3-pro+1 grok-4+1 qwen3.6+1 | Suppression of ARS creates a transition period; doubling of medical-school students reaches maturity over a decadal horizon. Health Suppression of ARS creates a transition period; doubling of medical-school students reaches maturity over a decadal horizon. |
| Education | +1 Curriculum changes and end-of-primary certificate take effect; education-voucher rollout phased. intervalle : 0 → +1 claude-opus-4-70 deepseek-v30 gemini-3-pro+1 grok-4+1 qwen3.6+1 | ? No single mode: full exposure to the education voucher and +20% rise in teacher pay; views diverge on the magnitude of the effect. intervalle : +1 → +2 claude-opus-4-7+1 deepseek-v3+1 gemini-3-pro+2 grok-4+2 qwen3.6+1 | +2 First cohorts fully educated under the reformed system enter the labour market. intervalle : +1 → +2 claude-opus-4-7+1 deepseek-v3+2 gemini-3-pro+2 grok-4+2 qwen3.6+2 | Education-voucher and school-autonomy reforms act gradually on cohort experience as cycles progress. Education Education-voucher and school-autonomy reforms act gradually on cohort experience as cycles progress. |
| Housing | ? No single mode: legal changes effective; private supply response delayed 2-4 years; immediate effect on social mix possibly negative. intervalle : −1 → +1 claude-opus-4-70 deepseek-v3−1 gemini-3-pro−1 grok-4+1 qwen3.6+1 | +1 Private supply response in previously-constrained zones; capitalization unlock supports homeownership. intervalle : −1 → +1 claude-opus-4-7+1 deepseek-v30 gemini-3-pro−1 grok-4+1 qwen3.6+1 | 0 Supply rebalanced; social-mix outcomes depend on the negotiation of flow targets with municipalities. intervalle : 0 → +2 claude-opus-4-70 deepseek-v30 gemini-3-pro0 grok-4+2 qwen3.6+2 | Suppression of SRU reshapes supply in tight markets; capitalization unlock for primary residence supports demand. Housing Suppression of SRU reshapes supply in tight markets; capitalization unlock for primary residence supports demand. |
Very positivePositiveNeutralNegativeVery negative
Execution risks
A synthetic view of the programme’s risk profile, by domain and risk category. Levels are ordinal (Low, Limited, Moderate, High) and reported per model — no aggregated cardinal score. Disagreements between models are flagged with ⚡.
| Dimension | Budgetary | Implementation | Dependency | Reversibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy & finance | High Tax cuts (€11.5bn) and capitalization transition without an offsetting table; spending trajectory aspirational. intervalle : Moderate → High claude-opus-4-7High deepseek-v3Moderate gemini-3-proHigh grok-4Moderate qwen3.6Moderate | High Unanimous: rewriting the Labor Code, overhauling the pension architecture and redeploying 450,000 civil servants in one term exceeds historical administrative capacity. niveau : High claude-opus-4-7High deepseek-v3High gemini-3-proHigh grok-4High qwen3.6High | Moderate Balanced-budget rule depends on a national constitutional majority; local fiscal reform depends on agreement with elected officials; market/rate effect limited. intervalle : Limited → Moderate claude-opus-4-7Moderate deepseek-v3Limited gemini-3-proModerate grok-4Limited qwen3.6Moderate | Moderate Capitalization with vested rights structurally hard to undo; tax cuts and the unified contract are easier to revise by a later majority. intervalle : Low → Moderate claude-opus-4-7Limited deepseek-v3Moderate gemini-3-proLow grok-4Moderate qwen3.6Moderate |
| Social & demography | Moderate Teacher pay raises, doubling of numerus clausus and education voucher create recurring costs; AME savings are partial. intervalle : Moderate → High claude-opus-4-7Moderate deepseek-v3Moderate gemini-3-proModerate grok-4Moderate qwen3.6High | High Simultaneous reorganization of schools (voucher, status, curricula) and healthcare (ARS, hospital governance) saturates administrative capacity. niveau : High claude-opus-4-7High deepseek-v3High gemini-3-proHigh grok-4High qwen3.6High | Low Reforms mostly internal; negotiation with teaching and medical bodies; migration-related health topics (AME) interact with EU law. intervalle : Low → Moderate claude-opus-4-7Moderate deepseek-v3Moderate gemini-3-proLow grok-4Low qwen3.6Low | Moderate Education voucher and hospital governance revisable by statute; numerus clausus and the introduction of competition in schools create more rigid pathways and vested rights. intervalle : Limited → Moderate claude-opus-4-7Moderate deepseek-v3Limited gemini-3-proModerate grok-4Moderate qwen3.6Moderate |
| Security & sovereignty | Moderate Police-justice plans with recurring costs partially offset by AME and administrative redeployment; precise financing not detailed. intervalle : Low → Moderate claude-opus-4-7Moderate deepseek-v3Moderate gemini-3-proLow grok-4Limited qwen3.6Limited | Moderate Creation of a territorial police, 24-month detention capacity and penal-code overhaul require a multi-year build-up. intervalle : Moderate → High claude-opus-4-7High deepseek-v3High gemini-3-proModerate grok-4Moderate qwen3.6Moderate | High Migration agenda depends on the constitutional revision, on cooperation from countries of origin, and potentially on ECHR exit. intervalle : Low → High claude-opus-4-7High deepseek-v3Low gemini-3-proHigh grok-4High qwen3.6High | Moderate Constitutional changes hard to reverse; statutory elements (AME, sentencing) easier. intervalle : Low → Moderate claude-opus-4-7Moderate deepseek-v3Limited gemini-3-proModerate grok-4Low qwen3.6Low |
| Institutions & democracy | Low Reform with potentially net positive cost via reduction of the mille-feuille; transition cost not quantified. intervalle : Low → Moderate claude-opus-4-7Low deepseek-v3Moderate gemini-3-proLow grok-4Limited qwen3.6Limited | High Simultaneous overhaul of the territorial architecture, of competences and of the law domain over a short horizon. niveau : High claude-opus-4-7High deepseek-v3High gemini-3-proHigh grok-4High qwen3.6High | High Everything depends on a constitutional revision (3/5 or referendum) and on the buy-in of local elected officials. intervalle : Moderate → High claude-opus-4-7High deepseek-v3High gemini-3-proModerate grok-4High qwen3.6High | Low Once enshrined in the Constitution, these transformations are structurally difficult to reverse. intervalle : Low → Moderate claude-opus-4-7Low deepseek-v3Low gemini-3-proModerate grok-4Low qwen3.6Low |
| Environment & long term | High Nuclear programme (EPRs, SMRs, life extensions) is highly capital-intensive over 15-20 years; quantification absent. intervalle : Moderate → High claude-opus-4-7High deepseek-v3High gemini-3-proModerate grok-4Moderate qwen3.6Moderate | High Nuclear industry (EDF, supply chain, ASN) under stress; SMRs not yet commercialized at scale. intervalle : Moderate → High claude-opus-4-7High deepseek-v3High gemini-3-proModerate grok-4Moderate qwen3.6High | Moderate Uranium supply chain and European cooperation (taxonomy); CETA/Mercosur negotiations. intervalle : Low → High claude-opus-4-7Moderate deepseek-v3Moderate gemini-3-proHigh grok-4Low qwen3.6Moderate | Low Heavy nuclear investments lock the electricity mix for 60+ years; tax framework reversible. intervalle : Low → Moderate claude-opus-4-7Low deepseek-v3Low gemini-3-proLow grok-4Moderate qwen3.6Low |